Fitch Revises Outlook on San Marino to Stable
(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings’ Report: San Marino Rating Action Report here PARIS/LONDON, July 11 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on moncler outlet prices San Marino’s Long moncler usa term foreign currency Issuer Default best moncler jackets Rating (IDR) to Stable from find out this here https://www.cheapmoncler.com cheap moncler Negative and affirmed the IDR at ‘BBB+’. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at ‘A+’ and the Short term foreign currency IDR at ‘F2’. KEY RATING DRIVERS The revision of the moncler sale online Outlook to Stable reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights: High Macroeconomic prospects have improved after Italy lifted San Marino from its black list of tax havens. The prospect of normalised relations with its main trading neighbour should benefit growth and could help the country cheap moncler coats mens rebalance away from a badly damaged banking sector. After five consecutive years of a severe recession, Fitch expects real GDP growth to stagnate moncler outlet woodbury in 2014 and rise to 1% in 2015. Nevertheless, Fitch believes growth prospects will remain weaker than before 2008 due to lasting damage to the moncler outlet store financial sector. Medium Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica de San Marino’s (CRSM) restructuring is well under way. The government injected 6.3% of GDP into the bank in late 2013 to reconstitute capital buffers. Although the full restructuring of the bank could take time, further capital needs, if any, are likely to be much smaller in coming years. Together with a structural tax reform implemented in late 2013 and aimed at further consolidating the budget deficit, this gives Fitch more confidence in the public debt trajectory in coming years, with a peak in sight within a two moncler sale outlet year time horizon. San Marino’s ‘BBB+’ IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers: San Marino’s uk moncler outlet investment grade rating is underpinned by the country’s high per capita income (close to USD60,000 at end 2013) and governance indicators which are more in line with ‘AAA’ rated sovereigns. Economic diversification is constrained by the small size of the country (around 30,000 inhabitants), making macroeconomic performance much more volatile than in larger countries. This exposes the country to a heightened risk of external shocks and, in the absence of a dynamic financial sector, constrains growth prospects over the medium term. The country has a track record of fiscal prudence, which mitigates weak financial flexibility. Despite recapitalisation costs worth more than 10% of GDP in the context of a deep and prolonged recession, the rise in public debt has been relatively contained with debt/GDP rising to moncler womens jackets 29% of GDP at end 2013 (2008: 13.5%). The government has been able cheap moncler jackets mens to tap substantial deposits accumulated in years of fiscal surplus before 2008 to finance budget deficits. However, these deposits are now largely exhausted. The government has no history of external borrowing. Available liquidity in the domestic banking sector will likely cover government financing needs as they decline in the context of fiscal consolidation. As a last resort, the government can also tap moncler outlet sale (as it did in 2012) large social security deposits that accounted for 28% of GDP at end 2013. The domestic financial sector will remain a rating weakness discount moncler jackets in the foreseeable future. Progress on restructuring has been made: the size of the sector has shrunk to 4.5x GDP and liquidity has improved since 2012 after the outflow of deposits triggered by the 2010 Italian tax amnesty. However, asset quality remains a concern cheap moncler jackets womens in most banks, and while capital buffers are above prudential requirements in all banks but CRSM, the cleaning up of the loan book uk moncler sale will be long and painful, potentially further hampering credit growth in coming years. Over the medium term, prospects for the industry remain weak. Despite some slight improvement, availability and quality of data remains weak, especially compared with moncler outlet peers. There is no high moncler online store frequency data on national accounts and no balance of payments data beyond the trade balance. Much recent data is estimated and subject to significant revisions. RATING SENSITIVITIES The Outlook is Stable. Consequently, Fitch’s sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a rating change. However, the following risk factors may, individually or collectively, result in a positive rating action: A diversification of the economy out of banking, leading to faster GDP growth than currently expected. Faster progress in deficit reduction, therefore improving debt dynamics. A broader improvement in the cheap moncler sale banking sector The following risk factors may, individually or collectively, result in moncler uk outlet a negative rating action: Further large recapitalisation needs of domestic banks from the government, exceeding Fitch’s current assumptions. Weakening commitment or ability to reduce budget deficits and stabilise the public debt ratio. Inability to diversify moncler sale the economy cheap moncler jackets out of the financial industry, leading to slower than expected growth. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch assumes that recapitalisation costs for the government will be limited to CRSM over the rating horizon. Fitch assumes a further 2% of GDP recapitalisation cost in 2015. Fitch assumes the eurozone as a whole will avoid long lasting deflation, such as that experienced by Japan from the 1990s. Fitch assumes the gradual progress in deepening fiscal and financial integration at the eurozone level will continue; key economic imbalances within the currency union will be slowly unwound; and eurozone governments will tighten fiscal policy over the medium term. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Sovereign Rating Criteria here Country Ceilings here Additional Disclosure Solicitation Status here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH’S CODE moncler outlet online OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE ‘CODE OF CONDUCT’ SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.