Here the best answer I can come up with, and it a bit troubling from my perspective. If we take a Bayesian perspective on the whole thing people start with a prior, and then update as they get more information here is the one stylized fact we actually know: Obama approval rating has dropped over the past year. So if we imagine that people start with a prior that Obama is a Christian, but it not particularly strong. Then time passes and they like him less that the new piece of information. So then they have to update their belief as to whether Obama is a Christian, and lo and behold, fewer people think he a Christian. From this perspective, it suggests that given enough initial uncertainty about a person religion liking that person less makes one less likely to think he is a Christian. Interestingly, the drop in is a Christian seems to be evenly split between thinking he is a Muslim and not knowing (other holds steady at 2%). Not exactly what we hope to see in a society that prides itself on religious freedom and tolerance.
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